Connecting the Industrial Revolution to AI: How Eric Hobsbawm Led Me to NVIDIA

I began investing in NVIDIA in April 2022, slightly ahead of the crowd. Today, my average purchase price stands at $18.85. In this post, I want to share the backstory of how reading Eric Hobsbawm’s The Age of Revolution allowed me to invest in NVIDIA well before most people realized its potential.

In The Age of Revolution, Hobsbawm examines both the Industrial Revolution and the French Revolution. It was through his specific perspective on the Industrial Revolution that I formed my investment thesis for the AI revolution. Here is how I connected the dots between these two historical pivots.

The Invisibility of a Revolution in Real-Time

While we now view the Industrial Revolution as a monumental event that fundamentally reshaped human history, Hobsbawm points out that the people living through it did not experience the sudden, dramatic upheaval we often imagine today.

On this point, I think it would be best to directly quote Professor Kim Dong-taek, who translated the book into Korean:

"In his analysis of the Industrial Revolution, Hobsbawm underscores its significance without reservation. However, he notes that from the perspective of those living at the time, the actual progression and immediate outcomes did not bring about glaringly obvious changes.

In other words, his foundational view is that the Industrial Revolution could only be recognized as a 'revolution' in hindsight; there was no abrupt, overnight shift at the beginning to warrant such a label. This was because industrial development at the time was not driven by entirely new scientific or technological breakthroughs, nor were the growth indicators drastically noticeable.

Nevertheless, he places immense weight on the Industrial Revolution because it served as the historical catalyst for modern capitalism and established the very archetype of industrial capitalism that followed.“

When you think about it objectively, this makes perfect sense. Even today, as the world order trembles with geopolitical conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine war or tensions between the U.S. and Iran, the vast majority of people still go to school, head to work, and dine with friends just as they did yesterday. Yet, fifty years from now, history books may well record these conflicts as the definitive inflection points where the global order was rewritten.

This principle applies beyond geopolitical events. We look back at Michael Jordan with awe, calling him the "God of Basketball." But did the people who lived as his contemporaries revere him to that exact same degree, feeling his absolute greatness at every single moment? Likely not. The true evaluation of an event or a figure only becomes possible after time has passed and the unfolding consequences finally align.

The Paradoxical Starting Point of the AI Era

The ultimate lesson of the Industrial Revolution is clear: A revolution is rarely felt while it is happening; it is only recognized in hindsight, once its outcomes are fully realized. This exact realization guided me to invest in NVIDIA. (I will save the specifics of why it had to be NVIDIA for my next post.) Paradoxically, the very fact that I could not yet "feel" the AI revolution in my daily life was proof that the revolution had already begun.

Looking back to when I first bought NVIDIA shares, my thought process—heavily influenced by Hobsbawm—went something like this:

೦ Like the people of the Industrial Revolution, the AI revolution might have already quietly begun without us consciously feeling it.

೦By the time everyone can palpably feel the revolution, the transformation will have already been finalized. Investing then will be too late.

೦ I must not hesitate. I need to start investing right now, while the subtle ripples of AI are just beginning to surface.

Grounded in this thesis, I consistently invested a portion of my tutoring income into NVIDIA every single month. Today, that discipline has yielded a substantial return. Though I have trimmed a small piece of my position to fund an investment in Tesla, I still hold the vast majority of my NVIDIA shares.

Beyond NVIDIA: In Search of the Next Revolution

For me, achieving a high rate of return is not the primary focus, and I do not operate with a specific target price. When, then, will I sell my NVIDIA shares? My exit criteria are clear.

I will sell NVIDIA when:

೦ The AI revolution is tangibly felt by everyone in their everyday lives.

೦ The AI revolution is universally accepted in hindsight as a definitive historical shift.

೦ The era successfully establishes the archetype for the 'AI capitalism' of the future.

Once that stage is reached, I will quietly exit my position. I will then set out to find the next revolution—one that has undoubtedly begun, but is still invisible to the rest of the world.

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